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Can the Labor Market Keep Outperforming?

The U.S. economy has evolved significantly in the first half of 2024, showing signs of a stalled housing sector, cautious consumer spending, and a cooling labor market as the second half begins. Click here for article.

  • Job Market Focus: Key labor data will be released this week, with expectations for a decline in job openings and a modest increase in private payrolls, culminating in Friday’s employment report predicting a slowdown in job creation.

  • Labor Market Cooling: Signs of softening labor conditions include a decline in job openings, a rise in temporary employment, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 4.0%.

  • Inflation and Fed Policy: The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation, which has cooled slightly but remains above target, suggests no immediate rate cuts, possibly delaying any action to December or beyond.

  • Consumer Caution and Economic Outlook: Consumers are becoming more cautious, influenced by inflation, labor market conditions, and the upcoming presidential election, which introduces uncertainty into the economic outlook for the latter part of the year.

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